Heating and cooling is one of the systems you will live with longest, and one of the hardest to change once the walls are closed. It is also a sizeable part of the budget: in the NAHB 2024 cost survey, HVAC averaged $26,938, or 6.3% of construction cost, on par with plumbing and electrical rough-ins.[1]
What gets installed in new homes has changed a lot. Heat pumps were the primary heating system in 47% of new single-family homes started in 2024, up from 23% in 2000, while forced-air furnaces fell from 71% to 50%. Central air conditioning is now close to universal, at 98%.[2] This guide explains the choices, what drives their cost and how to get a system that fits the house.
Key takeaways
- HVAC averaged $26,938 (6.3% of construction cost) in the NAHB 2024 survey.
- In 2024 starts, 47% used a heat pump and 50% a forced-air system as primary heat; 98% had central AC.
- Climate decides a lot: heat pumps led in the South Atlantic (82%) but were rare in the North Central divisions (7%).
- Ask for a room-by-room load calculation; correct sizing and duct design matter as much as the equipment brand.
What new homes are using
Almost all new single-family homes started in 2024, 97%, used either an air or ground-source heat pump or a forced-air furnace as the primary heating equipment, and 20% also had a secondary heating system.[2]
| Homes started | Heat pump (primary heat) | Forced air (primary heat) | Central AC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 23% | 71% | 85.5% |
| 2024 | 47% | 50% | 98% |
The fuel mix has moved the same way. About 54% of homes started in 2024 used electricity as the primary heating fuel, 41% natural gas, 3% propane and 0.1% oil.[2] The Census highlights for homes completed in 2025 show a similar split, with 56% fueled by electricity and 42% by gas.[3]
Climate decides more than you might think
Heat pumps are far more common where winters are mild. They were the primary heating system in 82% of new homes in the South Atlantic and 77% in the East South Central division in 2024, but only 7% in the East North Central and West North Central divisions.[2] In the Census highlights for 2025 completions, 63% of homes in the South had a heat pump and 36% a forced-air furnace.[3]
Central air shows a similar pattern. Every new home started in 2024 in the South Atlantic, East South Central and West South Central divisions had central AC. New England had the lowest share at 85%.[2] Fuel follows climate and infrastructure: New England had a 33% propane share for heating, much higher than other regions, because many homes there are beyond the reach of gas lines.[2]
That does not mean a heat pump cannot work in a cold climate, or a furnace in a warm one. It means your local HVAC contractors, utility rates and gas availability will push you toward one or the other, and you should understand why before you decide.
Your main options
Air-source heat pump
One system heats and cools by moving heat between indoors and outdoors. No gas line is needed, which can save the cost of running gas to the house if it is used for nothing else. Performance in very cold weather depends on the model; some systems include electric backup heat or are paired with a furnace.
Gas furnace with central AC
A furnace heats air with natural gas or propane, and a separate outdoor air-conditioning unit cools it. It is the traditional choice where gas is available and winters are cold. It needs a gas line, venting and, for propane, a tank.
Dual-fuel (hybrid)
A heat pump handles most heating and all cooling, and a gas furnace takes over in the coldest weather. It costs more up front but gives flexibility on fuel.
Ductless mini-splits
Wall or ceiling units connected to outdoor heat pumps, with no ductwork. Useful for small or very efficient houses, additions, bonus rooms and garages converted to living space.
Ground-source (geothermal) heat pump
Exchanges heat with the ground through buried loops. Very efficient to run, but drilling or trenching the loops adds a large up-front cost and depends heavily on your lot.
What drives HVAC cost in a new build
- House size and layout. More floor area and more stories usually mean more capacity, more ductwork, and often a second system or zoning.
- Insulation and air sealing. A tighter, better insulated house needs a smaller system. Money spent on the building envelope can reduce what you spend on equipment.
- Ductwork. Ducts in conditioned space perform better than ducts in a hot attic or vented crawl space. The design and installation quality matter as much as the equipment.
- Equipment efficiency and type. Higher-efficiency and variable-speed equipment costs more to buy and less to run.
- Fuel infrastructure. A gas service line, meter, flue and propane tank all add cost if you choose gas.
- Ventilation. Tight new homes need mechanical ventilation; your code may require a specific type such as an energy or heat recovery ventilator.
- Zoning, controls and filtration upgrades, such as separate zones for each floor.
- Flood and site rules. In flood zones, equipment must sit above the flood level, which can mean platforms or rooftop units. See building in a flood zone.
Get the size right: ask for a load calculation
Oversized systems are common and cause real problems: they cycle on and off, control humidity poorly and wear out faster. Undersized systems cannot keep up on the hottest or coldest days. The fix is a proper room-by-room load calculation based on your plans, orientation, windows, insulation and local climate, followed by a duct design that delivers the right airflow to each room.
Questions for your HVAC contractor
Will you do a room-by-room load calculation and duct design for this house? Where will the ducts run? How will the system handle humidity? What ventilation does code require here? What are the warranty terms on equipment and labor? What maintenance does it need?
Common HVAC mistakes in new homes
- Sizing by rule of thumb. "One ton per so many square feet" ignores windows, insulation, orientation and climate. Insist on a calculation for your plans.
- Ducts as an afterthought. If the framer does not leave room for trunk lines and returns, ducts end up squeezed, kinked or run through unconditioned space. Coordinate duct routes before framing.
- Too few returns. Bedrooms with closed doors need a path for air to get back to the system, or they will be stuffy and uneven.
- Ignoring humidity. In humid climates, a system that cools quickly but runs briefly leaves the house clammy. Ask how the system manages moisture.
- Skipping commissioning. Ask for the airflow to each room and the refrigerant charge to be checked and recorded when the system is started up.
- Cutting the envelope to pay for equipment. Insulation and air sealing are cheap to add during construction and hard to add later, and they reduce the size of the system you need.
Running costs and incentives
The cheapest system to install is not always the cheapest to own. Compare likely running costs using your local electricity and gas rates, and ask the contractor for an estimate based on the load calculation. Utility companies sometimes offer rebates for efficient equipment, and federal and state incentives change from year to year. Check what is available with your utility and the relevant agency when you choose equipment, rather than relying on old guides.
Think about maintenance access too. Filters need changing, outdoor units need clearance, and the air handler needs room to be serviced. Placing equipment in an awkward attic may save floor space but cost more in service calls later.
Budgeting HVAC in the calculator
The calculator's Major Systems Rough-ins stage includes HVAC at 6.3% of construction cost, using the NAHB average. Once you have a quote, switch the HVAC line to a lump sum. If you choose gas, remember the gas service connection is often a separate utility charge, covered in our guide to hidden costs. Plumbing and electrical are the other two big systems in the same stage; see plumbing and electrical rough-in costs.
The systems you choose also affect how long the build takes. HVAC rough-in has to be coordinated with framing, plumbing and electrical, and inspected before insulation and drywall. A contractor who is late here delays every finish trade behind them.
Plug your house size, land price and quotes into the free calculator. It uses the same NAHB 2024 averages as this guide.
Frequently asked questions
How much does HVAC cost in a new house?
In the NAHB 2024 survey, HVAC averaged $26,938, or 6.3% of construction cost. Your cost depends on house size, system type, efficiency, ductwork and fuel.
Are heat pumps common in new homes?
Yes. In 2024, 47% of new single-family homes started used a heat pump as the primary heating system, up from 23% in 2000.
Do new homes come with central air?
Almost always. In 2024, 98% of new single-family homes started had central air conditioning.
What size HVAC system does my new house need?
It depends on the house, not just the square footage. Ask for a room-by-room load calculation and duct design based on your plans and climate.
Sources
- NAHB: Cost of Constructing a Home 2024 Verified
- NAHB Eye on Housing: HVAC in New Construction in 2024 Verified (third-party copy)
- US Census Bureau: Highlights of 2025 Characteristics of New Housing Verified
Figures last checked October 18, 2026. National averages are a planning guide, not a quote. See our editorial policy and data sources.
